Kaneohe, Hawaii 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

894
FXHW60 PHFO 271302
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
302 AM HST Tue May 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Light to moderate trade winds will persist through Thursday,
maintaining mostly dry and stable conditions across the islands.
Showers will favor windward slopes and coasts overnight into the
morning hours, then shift to leeward areas each afternoon where
sea breezes develop. An upper-level disturbance near the western
end of the state may lead to a slight increase in clouds and
showers there, mainly through midweek, before lifting northeast
and away from the islands. Breezy trade winds are expected to
return Friday and continue into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Short-term model guidance remains in good agreement, showing
light to moderate trade winds persisting into Thursday as a weak
subtropical ridge holds north of the islands. A well-established
mid-level ridge continues to promote dry and stable conditions,
with the trade wind inversion anchored around 6,000 feet. These
factors have limited overnight shower activity, with only isolated
pockets of moisture producing light rainfall along windward
slopes.

An upper-level low near Kauai is expected to become more
organized later today, drawing a narrow band of moisture over the
island from late today through Wednesday. This may lead to an
increase in shower coverage across windward areas, with some
afternoon showers forming over leeward sections. Elsewhere, shower
activity should remain minimal - confined mainly to windward
locations overnight and early mornings, and to interior and
leeward areas where sea breezes develop during the afternoon.

Toward the end of the week, surface high pressure is forecast to
reestablish itself well northeast of the islands. This will
support stronger trade winds Friday and Saturday. At the same
time, the upper low will gradually shift east of the area,
allowing for more stable and slightly drier conditions to settle
in. Trades may veer slightly east-southeast and ease a bit on
Sunday as a surface trough develops west of the state, but
overall, the weather should remain fair into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail for most areas through
midweek, with brief showers possible over windward locations
overnight, and across some interior locations through the
afternoons where sea breezes form. An upper-level disturbance near
the western end of the state may lead to a slight increase in
clouds and showers later today through early Wednesday -
potentially leading to brief periods of MVFR conditions tonight.

There are currently no AIRMETs in effect and none are anticipated
today.

&&

.MARINE...
The high pressure ridge far north of the Hawaiian Islands will
weaken through Friday in response to cold fronts passing through
the Central Pacific basin. Trade winds will remain in the gentle
to moderate range through Friday, then increase to fresh levels
this weekend as the ridge builds.

Surf heights will remain tiny for all shores through Wednesday.
Surf heights will increase along north and west facing shores from
Wednesday night through Thursday as a brief north-northwest
(330-340 deg) swell pulses through the region. A larger north-
northwest (330-340 deg) swell arrives in the islands by early
Saturday morning producing moderate surf heights along north and
west facing shores. This swell fades rapidly from Saturday night
to Sunday.

A small background pulse in the south swell energy will produce a
slight bump to surf heights along south facing shores starting
Wednesday afternoon, peaking by Friday, and then slowly fading
through the weekend.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&
$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION...Gibbs
MARINE...Bohlin